***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 30.1 30.6 31.8 0.9 61.7 59.7 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.6 32.2 1.4 66.9 64.2 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.9 30.4 31.9 0.9 61.0 59.0 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 23.3 23.2 29.3 0.2 53.2 52.4 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.8 30.1 29.0 -0.2 47.5 47.6 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.6 26.1 -0.3 45.0 45.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 30.5 30.7 32.3 1.5 68.3 65.5 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.7 17.9 26.8 -0.4 44.1 44.7 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 30.2 29.7 29.2 -0.1 48.6 48.7 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.2 27.7 -0.3 46.1 46.5 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.3 29.5 28.6 -0.3 46.7 46.9 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.9 28.3 -0.3 46.1 46.5 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.6 29.7 27.4 -0.5 43.4 44.1 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.6 29.5 29.0 0.4 54.6 53.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 31.0 31.3 30.5 0.7 59.7 57.7 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 30.6 28.4 -0.2 47.5 47.5 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 30.2 30.3 32.0 1.6 68.4 65.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.3 27.2 -0.1 48.4 48.5 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 29.4 30.2 32.1 1.4 66.0 63.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.0 24.3 -0.5 43.0 43.8 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 30.1 29.9 30.4 0.2 52.0 51.5 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 30.5 30.6 31.7 1.5 67.6 64.3 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 29.5 30.2 31.7 1.2 64.2 61.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.2 29.0 0.2 53.1 52.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.3 29.6 0.3 54.4 53.6 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.9 28.3 0.2 52.2 51.5 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 29.8 30.2 30.7 0.8 60.1 58.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.9 30.8 29.5 0.3 53.8 52.7 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.7 26.0 -0.2 46.9 47.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 29.7 30.5 32.1 1.3 65.6 63.0 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------