***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.1 29.9 0.3 55.6 55.0 28.3 28.9 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.3 30.4 0.6 62.4 61.0 28.2 28.8 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.9 29.9 0.1 52.1 52.0 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 22.4 21.9 27.1 -0.4 42.7 43.7 21.4 22.2 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.6 27.2 -0.8 34.2 36.0 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.3 24.5 -0.8 31.6 33.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 29.4 29.4 30.5 0.8 66.7 64.9 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 16.4 16.5 24.9 -1.0 30.3 32.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.3 27.8 -0.7 36.3 37.8 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.7 27.9 25.9 -0.9 32.8 34.4 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.1 27.0 -0.9 32.4 34.3 28.1 29.0 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.3 -0.8 33.1 35.0 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.3 28.4 26.1 -1.0 29.8 32.2 28.6 29.3 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.3 27.5 -0.3 43.8 44.7 27.9 28.5 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.2 30.1 29.1 0.1 51.2 51.2 29.3 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.0 29.3 26.7 -0.8 33.9 35.9 29.2 30.0 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.0 30.3 0.9 67.8 65.4 27.7 28.3 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.2 25.3 -0.7 35.6 36.9 27.1 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.7 30.2 0.5 59.1 58.2 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 22.6 22.6 22.6 -1.1 27.6 29.5 22.9 23.6 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.5 28.9 -0.5 39.8 41.1 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 29.4 29.3 29.9 0.7 64.3 62.4 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.8 29.8 0.3 57.0 56.3 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.5 27.9 27.4 -0.4 41.2 42.3 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.9 28.0 -0.3 44.1 45.1 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.5 26.1 -0.6 37.2 38.8 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.8 29.1 0.2 53.9 53.5 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.2 29.7 27.6 -0.4 42.2 43.3 29.3 30.0 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.3 22.4 24.2 -0.8 33.1 34.5 22.4 23.1 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 28.9 29.0 30.2 0.5 59.6 58.6 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------