***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.8 11.0 45.9 43.6 36.9 3.5 7.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.1 9.3 39.6 39.3 33.2 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.8 9.6 42.6 41.4 34.9 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.0 10.4 44.4 40.7 36.1 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.1 8.8 11.7 50.4 43.9 38.1 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.5 7.2 13.4 55.7 44.0 39.9 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.4 10.2 42.0 41.5 32.7 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 23.7 16.5 17.1 57.5 44.2 40.3 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.5 10.3 14.5 61.7 49.6 42.9 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 11.8 17.4 57.4 45.8 41.1 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.7 11.2 46.4 41.5 36.4 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.5 10.6 12.3 55.0 43.6 39.0 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 7.3 12.1 55.1 45.2 39.8 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.8 14.8 47.9 41.4 36.6 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.9 7.1 36.3 40.7 33.9 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.0 7.5 11.3 52.4 43.6 38.3 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 5.2 9.9 40.4 39.7 32.1 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.5 11.7 19.9 59.5 45.0 41.1 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.2 9.3 39.8 38.7 33.1 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.7 11.0 20.7 63.2 45.2 41.4 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.5 8.9 12.6 56.7 48.0 41.1 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.0 6.2 9.4 39.3 37.7 31.1 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.9 5.0 9.2 38.4 37.5 31.8 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.0 9.3 14.4 52.7 43.6 38.7 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 7.0 11.9 46.5 43.3 37.7 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.4 6.2 35.6 33.4 29.6 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.5 7.2 11.4 44.1 42.2 36.2 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.8 10.4 46.5 42.8 36.8 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.5 14.9 19.5 58.7 43.8 40.4 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.2 8.9 38.1 39.1 33.3 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------