***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.5 11.8 37.5 35.2 28.5 3.1 6.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.5 4.1 10.3 34.7 34.6 28.4 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.8 14.0 46.7 41.1 34.5 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.1 14.7 48.3 43.1 36.5 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.6 4.6 14.8 50.1 44.2 38.3 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 4.6 19.0 56.7 45.3 40.6 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.8 10.0 33.5 34.5 27.7 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.8 5.2 17.3 47.2 39.4 35.0 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.6 13.7 43.4 39.4 33.5 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.3 17.6 45.8 39.6 34.6 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.0 3.9 16.9 56.3 45.5 40.5 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.6 4.8 15.8 54.6 43.7 38.8 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 2.8 14.4 50.9 43.5 38.2 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.2 16.9 41.9 36.9 30.7 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.9 13.7 55.2 48.7 39.3 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.1 14.6 50.7 43.6 38.3 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.5 9.3 31.6 32.5 26.7 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.7 19.8 47.3 39.1 34.6 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.4 4.2 11.1 37.1 35.5 29.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 3.9 19.8 48.3 36.6 33.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.0 13.8 45.7 41.3 34.9 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.5 3.1 10.9 36.9 34.8 29.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.8 4.0 13.1 42.3 38.0 31.7 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.1 17.2 46.4 39.4 33.9 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.5 14.6 42.1 38.6 32.7 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 5.1 4.8 17.8 71.7 53.1 49.4 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.2 4.0 13.7 39.0 35.7 29.9 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.2 14.2 51.0 45.7 37.6 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.4 22.2 51.1 39.3 35.8 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 3.8 11.8 39.2 37.4 30.1 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------