***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 1.8 0.6 10.3 18.9 17.2 15.2 3.0 7.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 1.8 1.0 10.4 20.0 18.1 15.5 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 1.6 0.8 10.4 19.7 17.5 15.2 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.4 11.1 20.5 19.2 16.2 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.0 11.6 22.5 19.5 16.4 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 1.8 0.8 11.9 19.9 14.2 13.6 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 2.6 1.2 9.6 18.6 16.0 14.4 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 2.9 1.3 14.2 21.8 13.7 13.4 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.8 12.3 22.8 19.5 16.1 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 1.7 0.7 14.5 21.9 15.7 14.3 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.7 10.5 19.8 15.8 13.9 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 1.4 0.5 11.4 22.1 15.1 14.3 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.7 11.7 22.1 16.4 15.3 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 2.4 1.3 15.1 21.2 17.1 15.2 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 1.3 1.1 8.2 18.0 20.4 16.6 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.8 10.1 19.6 16.0 14.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.1 11.6 21.7 19.6 16.5 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 2.4 1.1 17.5 23.8 16.1 15.3 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 2.4 1.3 10.7 20.3 18.4 15.6 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 2.3 1.2 18.0 23.6 13.5 13.8 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 2.1 1.4 10.7 20.5 17.9 15.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 3.8 2.3 13.0 23.4 20.0 17.5 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.9 1.3 11.4 21.1 19.2 16.0 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 1.9 1.3 14.7 23.0 18.5 16.4 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 2.2 1.3 12.4 20.5 18.5 16.5 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.1 1.3 9.0 21.0 17.0 15.3 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 2.1 0.9 11.9 19.8 17.2 15.6 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.6 9.9 19.7 20.1 16.3 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 4.1 2.4 18.5 24.0 15.2 14.8 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 2.5 1.4 10.0 19.0 17.8 15.2 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------