***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 97 3 0 100 1.5 0.5 8.0 9.3 8.0 7.7 3.9 7.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 1.3 0.4 7.5 8.8 8.1 7.7 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 1.5 0.5 8.9 10.1 9.2 8.8 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 1.5 0.5 8.8 10.9 11.2 10.0 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.6 8.7 10.8 11.3 9.9 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.6 10.8 12.8 10.5 10.1 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 1.0 0.2 6.8 8.0 7.1 6.8 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.4 12.1 12.6 9.4 9.1 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 1.5 0.8 8.8 10.1 10.5 9.3 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 2.0 0.8 11.6 11.2 9.4 9.0 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 0.9 0.3 8.8 11.3 10.1 9.2 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 1.0 0.4 9.4 12.2 9.6 9.2 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 1.2 0.5 9.5 12.4 11.7 10.7 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 0.7 0.1 12.3 10.8 8.9 8.7 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.5 6.9 10.1 12.5 10.2 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.7 8.5 11.6 10.9 10.0 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.3 6.5 7.8 6.4 6.3 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.4 14.3 12.2 9.4 9.3 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 1.1 0.3 8.2 9.4 8.5 8.2 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 2.5 1.1 15.3 13.3 8.3 8.5 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 0.8 0.3 7.8 9.2 9.6 8.7 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 1.2 0.5 8.5 10.0 7.9 7.8 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 0.7 0.2 8.9 9.9 8.4 8.2 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 1.7 0.7 11.9 11.4 9.6 9.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 0.8 0.1 8.0 8.6 7.9 7.5 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 1.6 1.0 8.4 13.4 12.2 11.2 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 0.8 0.1 8.1 8.8 7.1 7.0 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 1.2 0.7 8.5 11.5 12.8 11.0 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 2.2 0.6 14.9 12.5 8.3 8.5 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 1.1 0.5 8.1 9.4 8.4 8.1 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------