***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 15.0 10.6 41.2 20.5 10.7 11.2 28.6 44.4 64.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 18.7 13.3 37.4 19.3 10.1 10.6 30.4 43.7 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 16.7 12.6 42.8 21.8 11.4 11.8 29.5 44.5 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 20.8 16.7 45.1 23.0 12.9 13.2 35.1 52.5 73.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 17.9 14.3 46.9 24.3 13.1 13.4 29.4 43.2 60.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 17.7 13.5 55.1 25.6 10.8 11.4 31.3 46.4 64.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 14.2 9.0 36.7 18.7 9.5 10.1 24.7 37.6 52.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 31.9 21.5 60.7 26.0 8.0 9.0 49.6 68.3 90.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 16.2 12.1 49.3 24.0 11.8 12.3 28.0 42.4 59.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 26.7 19.2 61.2 24.7 9.3 10.0 41.4 57.1 75.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 12.2 8.0 47.4 25.0 11.4 12.0 23.0 37.7 56.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 14.3 8.8 49.0 26.8 9.8 10.8 27.5 44.5 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 13.0 9.9 47.7 25.7 12.3 12.8 22.2 33.2 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 24.6 15.0 59.0 22.3 8.4 9.2 40.2 59.1 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 9.9 7.9 35.9 22.2 17.2 16.7 16.4 28.1 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 12.6 9.0 44.5 24.6 11.7 12.3 21.3 32.3 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 20.5 14.6 37.4 19.1 9.6 10.2 31.4 44.0 58.8 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 24.6 16.7 71.4 25.8 8.5 9.4 39.9 55.9 75.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 19.2 13.3 39.2 19.9 10.0 10.6 32.6 48.6 68.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 26.4 16.8 73.9 27.0 5.5 6.6 37.9 49.4 62.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 15.0 11.7 44.9 22.9 12.2 12.6 26.4 39.3 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 23.7 16.9 41.8 21.0 9.5 10.3 35.1 48.3 63.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 19.8 13.9 42.5 20.6 9.6 10.3 31.0 43.8 58.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 21.1 14.8 58.3 24.1 10.0 10.7 34.1 49.1 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 17.8 12.8 46.8 21.5 10.8 11.3 30.9 46.7 65.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 13.9 11.8 41.4 26.6 14.2 14.5 22.9 34.0 47.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 15.3 9.5 45.1 20.5 9.8 10.4 30.0 48.1 70.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 17.8 14.4 43.0 23.9 15.3 15.3 27.0 40.1 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 41.6 30.0 75.0 26.5 7.1 8.0 58.5 74.9 92.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 15.8 11.3 38.8 19.9 10.3 10.8 27.9 41.9 59.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------