***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.6 18.7 0.7 64.5 59.4 14.6 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 18.3 0.3 57.4 54.8 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.4 18.8 0.5 60.5 57.6 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.9 14.4 16.4 0.6 62.4 59.9 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.3 16.5 0.4 59.7 57.7 12.4 13.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.6 13.7 -0.1 48.2 49.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.8 18.6 0.6 62.8 58.7 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.3 13.7 0.0 50.1 50.8 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 16.6 0.4 59.9 57.8 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 14.6 0.0 51.1 51.5 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.0 15.9 0.3 57.8 56.4 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.9 14.8 0.2 54.7 54.2 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.4 14.1 -0.3 42.4 45.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.3 15.9 -0.2 44.8 46.9 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.1 17.9 0.6 64.1 60.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.4 15.2 0.1 52.4 52.5 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.1 18.0 0.3 56.9 54.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.8 13.6 -0.2 43.8 46.5 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 18.3 0.4 58.0 55.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.5 11.5 -0.4 41.0 44.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.5 17.8 0.4 59.3 56.9 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.4 17.9 0.1 53.1 51.9 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 18.3 0.5 60.4 57.8 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.4 16.0 0.0 49.2 50.5 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.7 17.6 0.6 61.9 57.5 13.7 14.9 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.7 13.6 -0.2 45.1 46.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.4 18.1 0.7 64.0 58.8 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.3 16.6 0.4 59.2 57.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.1 12.8 -0.4 39.9 43.2 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.7 18.6 0.5 60.3 56.9 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------