***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.7 17.1 19.9 1.6 80.7 70.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.8 17.2 19.7 1.4 78.7 69.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.9 19.4 20.1 1.5 81.3 71.9 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.8 15.8 17.9 1.8 85.4 75.6 12.6 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.2 15.8 17.5 1.6 82.7 73.8 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.5 15.2 1.0 75.1 68.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 17.1 17.6 19.9 1.5 81.1 71.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 10.0 10.3 15.1 1.2 77.5 69.8 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 16.4 16.9 17.6 1.5 82.5 73.7 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 16.3 16.6 15.9 1.2 78.4 70.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 16.1 16.6 17.0 1.5 82.6 73.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 14.3 14.7 15.9 1.3 80.1 72.0 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.3 14.9 0.8 70.0 65.6 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 17.1 17.2 17.1 1.0 73.3 67.0 15.6 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 18.0 18.9 19.1 1.8 86.1 75.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.0 16.2 1.3 78.1 71.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.8 19.4 1.3 78.1 68.1 16.0 16.7 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.0 14.8 1.0 73.3 67.1 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.1 19.7 1.4 79.3 70.1 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.7 12.3 0.6 65.8 62.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 16.3 16.7 18.9 1.4 80.3 71.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 19.2 1.3 76.8 67.7 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.6 19.5 1.5 81.0 72.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 17.0 17.2 17.1 1.2 77.4 69.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 18.5 1.5 80.4 70.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 15.5 15.6 15.0 1.2 76.8 70.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.1 19.2 1.6 81.1 71.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.1 18.0 1.6 83.6 74.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.0 14.1 0.8 69.3 64.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.5 20.0 1.5 80.1 70.4 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------