***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.9 20.2 1.6 79.6 71.4 15.5 16.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.9 19.8 1.5 78.2 69.0 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 19.5 20.2 20.3 1.6 80.9 71.7 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.8 18.0 1.7 82.4 74.6 12.8 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.6 17.6 1.5 79.6 72.3 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 1.1 73.9 68.1 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.5 18.1 20.1 1.6 80.0 70.9 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.8 15.1 1.1 74.0 68.4 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 17.0 17.4 17.7 1.4 79.5 72.0 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 16.9 17.2 16.0 1.2 75.3 69.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.6 17.1 17.0 1.4 79.4 72.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.7 15.0 15.9 1.2 76.2 70.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.7 15.0 0.9 69.4 64.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.5 17.2 1.0 72.0 65.3 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.8 19.2 1.6 82.5 74.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.8 16.3 1.3 76.1 70.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.3 19.5 1.4 77.3 67.7 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.1 14.8 0.9 71.2 66.4 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 17.2 17.7 19.8 1.5 78.8 69.3 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.0 12.3 0.6 64.1 61.2 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.3 19.1 1.4 78.8 70.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.1 19.2 1.2 75.7 66.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.3 19.7 1.5 80.1 70.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 17.2 17.4 17.1 1.2 75.8 69.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.6 18.7 1.5 78.3 70.7 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.9 15.0 1.1 73.2 67.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.4 18.1 19.4 1.6 79.3 71.3 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.4 18.1 1.6 81.2 73.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.4 14.1 0.7 68.0 63.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.6 18.1 20.2 1.6 79.5 70.5 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------