***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 30.1 31.7 31.6 3.7 91.1 88.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 29.9 31.1 31.4 3.4 87.9 84.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 30.0 31.4 31.7 3.7 89.4 86.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 23.3 25.8 29.6 4.3 94.3 91.2 19.8 21.1 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 30.5 32.5 30.4 4.1 92.2 89.0 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 29.0 30.3 27.1 3.2 88.2 84.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 30.0 31.2 31.3 3.3 88.2 85.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 18.1 19.4 27.6 3.4 88.4 85.3 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 30.1 32.3 31.4 4.2 93.4 90.5 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 29.5 30.9 28.7 3.6 88.7 85.7 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 29.9 31.8 30.7 4.0 92.0 88.5 26.6 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 29.1 31.2 29.5 4.1 93.2 90.0 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.8 29.7 3.7 90.7 87.3 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 29.3 29.9 29.4 2.7 82.2 79.1 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 31.1 32.9 31.6 3.7 91.9 88.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 31.1 33.0 30.1 4.0 92.2 88.9 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 29.5 30.6 30.8 3.1 86.2 83.0 26.6 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 28.6 29.5 27.1 2.9 83.8 80.8 25.6 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 29.4 30.7 31.6 3.6 88.9 85.8 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 24.2 24.9 24.6 2.4 80.6 77.5 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 30.2 31.8 31.7 3.8 90.3 87.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 29.7 30.3 30.1 2.6 81.8 78.7 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 29.6 31.2 32.0 4.2 92.0 89.1 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 29.2 30.2 29.7 3.1 85.7 82.6 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 30.3 31.7 30.4 3.6 90.1 86.8 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 29.7 31.2 28.7 3.8 91.1 87.8 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 29.8 31.2 30.8 3.5 90.2 87.0 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 31.2 33.1 30.2 3.7 91.6 88.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 24.0 24.7 25.9 2.5 81.0 78.0 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 29.9 31.1 31.5 3.5 88.7 85.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------