***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.4 30.5 1.6 73.9 68.0 27.7 29.2 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 30.7 31.1 30.4 1.5 72.1 66.2 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.9 31.3 30.6 1.5 71.7 66.5 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 24.4 24.9 28.5 1.9 76.4 70.2 21.1 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.6 31.9 29.0 1.5 71.8 67.1 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.7 25.3 0.2 53.3 53.2 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.6 31.0 30.3 1.5 72.1 66.6 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.5 26.3 0.9 62.7 59.5 16.2 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 31.1 31.6 29.7 1.7 74.7 69.3 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.6 30.5 27.5 1.2 66.7 62.8 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.2 28.9 1.4 69.6 65.1 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.0 27.9 1.2 67.1 62.7 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.6 27.5 0.7 59.7 57.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.5 30.2 28.3 1.0 64.7 60.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 32.0 32.3 30.1 1.5 73.5 68.0 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 32.2 31.9 28.2 1.1 65.9 62.4 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 30.1 30.5 30.1 1.6 72.8 66.4 27.1 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.7 29.1 26.3 0.8 61.4 58.6 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 30.3 30.8 30.5 1.6 72.9 66.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.0 23.5 0.1 51.7 51.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.8 31.2 30.2 1.5 71.1 66.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.7 29.6 1.2 68.2 63.0 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 30.6 31.2 30.6 1.8 75.7 69.1 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.2 28.6 1.2 67.1 62.9 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 31.3 31.6 29.1 1.5 72.1 66.9 28.1 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.3 27.1 0.8 61.5 58.7 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.0 29.7 1.6 73.5 67.8 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.9 32.0 28.9 1.4 70.7 66.0 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.0 25.0 0.4 55.8 54.4 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.7 30.9 30.4 1.5 71.6 66.2 27.4 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------