***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 30.3 31.0 31.6 2.2 79.2 71.3 27.8 28.9 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 30.3 30.9 31.4 2.1 78.0 70.5 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.3 31.0 31.8 2.1 77.6 70.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 24.5 25.7 30.3 2.7 83.8 76.0 20.9 22.4 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.3 32.1 30.1 2.2 78.9 72.4 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 29.8 29.8 26.8 1.3 69.5 65.2 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.7 31.5 2.1 79.3 71.4 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.2 19.3 27.8 1.6 71.6 67.1 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.4 30.2 2.2 78.0 71.7 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.6 30.8 28.6 1.8 73.5 68.4 27.1 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 30.9 31.6 29.7 2.1 77.9 71.8 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.5 29.3 1.9 74.4 69.3 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.9 30.8 28.1 1.3 67.4 64.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.0 28.9 1.5 69.5 64.7 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.7 33.0 31.0 2.5 84.4 76.2 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 31.9 32.4 29.3 1.9 75.2 69.9 28.5 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.3 31.2 2.1 78.1 69.9 27.0 28.2 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.3 27.5 1.4 67.9 64.0 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.4 31.5 2.1 77.8 70.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.5 24.6 0.7 59.7 58.5 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.6 31.2 30.9 2.0 76.0 69.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.4 30.7 1.8 74.2 67.0 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 29.9 30.5 31.4 2.2 78.1 70.9 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 29.9 30.0 29.3 1.7 72.1 66.9 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.7 30.1 2.2 79.1 71.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.0 28.9 1.7 72.9 68.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.1 31.0 30.8 2.2 80.4 71.9 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.7 32.7 30.3 2.4 81.5 74.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 24.7 24.3 26.2 1.0 62.7 60.3 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.7 31.5 2.1 78.0 70.7 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------