***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 31.3 32.3 32.1 2.5 80.9 72.8 28.5 29.8 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.8 31.9 2.4 79.7 70.7 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.9 32.3 2.5 80.0 71.5 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.4 25.4 30.6 2.7 82.9 74.6 21.6 22.8 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.8 30.6 2.4 79.7 72.0 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.3 27.3 1.5 70.6 64.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.8 32.0 2.4 80.4 71.5 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.4 19.7 28.3 1.8 73.2 66.6 17.2 18.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 31.4 32.2 30.7 2.5 79.9 71.7 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.4 29.1 2.1 75.3 68.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.4 32.1 30.2 2.3 78.2 70.9 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.5 30.8 29.7 2.0 74.8 68.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 31.4 31.3 28.5 1.4 68.1 63.3 28.8 30.1 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.7 31.0 29.4 1.8 72.9 64.6 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 32.0 33.0 31.4 2.6 83.4 74.8 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 32.2 32.6 29.7 2.0 75.0 68.5 29.4 30.7 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 30.6 31.5 31.6 2.3 79.9 70.2 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.8 28.1 1.7 70.6 64.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.6 31.5 32.0 2.4 79.7 70.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.4 25.2 1.0 63.6 59.4 23.3 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 31.2 32.0 31.5 2.3 78.4 70.5 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.6 31.2 2.1 77.5 67.8 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 30.6 31.6 31.9 2.5 80.1 70.8 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 30.2 30.8 29.8 2.0 74.9 67.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 31.5 32.3 30.5 2.4 80.0 72.1 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.3 29.1 1.7 72.4 66.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.9 31.3 2.5 81.5 73.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.8 32.6 30.7 2.4 80.6 72.4 29.4 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.1 26.7 1.3 66.1 60.8 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.8 32.1 2.4 79.9 71.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------