***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 30.0 31.0 31.5 2.5 92.2 85.9 28.4 29.0 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 29.9 30.9 31.3 2.3 90.7 83.4 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 30.0 31.1 31.6 2.5 90.9 84.8 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 23.4 24.9 29.8 2.9 94.1 88.9 21.5 22.2 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 30.7 32.0 30.0 2.6 91.9 86.2 28.6 29.5 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.6 26.6 1.5 81.2 76.0 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.8 30.8 31.3 2.3 91.2 83.9 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 18.4 19.0 27.5 1.9 85.1 79.7 16.7 17.4 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 30.2 31.5 30.5 2.6 92.9 87.2 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 29.9 30.7 28.5 2.2 87.0 81.3 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 30.3 31.5 29.9 2.5 90.8 85.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 29.4 30.4 29.1 2.3 89.2 84.0 27.5 28.2 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.0 28.4 1.8 82.6 77.8 28.6 29.4 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 29.5 30.0 29.0 1.7 83.4 76.2 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 31.1 32.3 31.0 2.6 92.4 87.2 29.3 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.2 29.3 2.3 88.3 83.2 29.3 30.1 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 29.3 30.4 30.9 2.3 90.5 82.5 27.7 28.4 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 28.7 29.1 27.2 1.7 81.3 75.6 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 29.4 30.5 31.4 2.4 91.1 84.0 27.8 28.4 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 24.4 24.6 24.5 1.1 72.4 68.0 22.9 23.6 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 30.2 31.3 31.1 2.4 90.6 84.5 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.4 30.4 1.9 86.9 78.1 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 29.6 30.8 31.5 2.7 92.7 86.1 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 29.3 30.0 29.3 2.0 86.2 79.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 30.4 31.6 30.0 2.4 91.3 84.7 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 30.0 30.7 28.4 2.0 85.5 80.7 28.4 29.0 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 29.7 30.9 30.6 2.5 92.4 85.6 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 31.1 32.1 30.0 2.5 90.9 85.6 29.3 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.0 24.3 26.0 1.3 75.7 70.5 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 29.8 30.8 31.4 2.4 90.7 83.8 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------