***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.9 16.8 107.5 66.0 50.4 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.8 17.9 119.2 69.8 54.5 4.2 7.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.0 15.7 17.5 119.0 69.8 52.5 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 14.9 15.4 97.3 62.7 48.1 3.5 8.6 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.6 14.3 14.0 93.2 61.5 46.5 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.6 15.4 96.8 62.5 48.6 4.1 9.4 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.8 17.4 111.3 67.4 53.4 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.9 23.1 15.7 85.1 57.3 46.6 10.6 18.7 29.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.3 14.0 90.7 60.2 46.7 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 16.8 16.1 84.1 57.2 46.0 7.2 13.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 13.4 14.2 98.5 63.1 48.0 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.6 17.2 13.5 92.7 61.0 47.9 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.3 14.5 99.8 64.1 49.1 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.6 18.6 21.6 110.0 67.2 54.1 5.4 10.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.5 15.1 117.8 70.2 50.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.7 14.2 102.0 64.5 49.1 4.5 8.7 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.3 15.5 99.2 63.0 51.0 4.1 7.5 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 15.9 17.8 84.2 56.7 46.3 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.1 16.3 18.6 125.2 71.5 55.8 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.1 16.2 18.9 97.9 61.7 50.9 7.5 12.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.1 15.6 100.5 63.8 48.2 4.8 8.3 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.7 16.1 15.0 100.6 64.1 52.7 5.2 10.1 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 16.2 20.4 136.5 74.4 58.2 4.2 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.7 15.0 17.2 96.0 62.0 49.3 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.1 13.1 16.8 97.1 62.6 47.4 3.9 8.3 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.0 9.4 10.6 101.0 65.0 49.6 3.8 6.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 13.9 17.1 101.9 63.8 48.1 4.3 8.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.4 11.9 15.2 106.5 65.7 49.5 2.8 6.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.7 24.1 18.6 89.2 58.8 48.0 15.3 20.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 15.4 18.2 123.2 71.0 54.4 3.4 7.4 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------