***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.9 7.4 8.8 69.1 52.4 37.2 3.0 6.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.0 8.7 75.9 55.1 37.4 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.7 6.7 8.6 68.3 52.1 36.8 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.7 9.3 7.2 70.6 53.8 39.0 3.6 8.0 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.9 7.1 71.8 54.6 40.7 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.4 81.6 57.7 38.9 2.5 5.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.5 6.8 8.6 76.8 55.1 37.2 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.4 8.0 7.0 62.9 50.3 36.7 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.5 6.9 62.5 49.8 36.9 2.0 4.5 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.0 7.7 65.7 51.5 38.1 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.6 6.9 65.7 50.2 37.4 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.7 6.4 66.2 51.6 35.6 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.7 6.3 8.3 87.6 60.8 38.1 1.5 3.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.7 11.4 80.2 56.1 37.4 3.9 8.5 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.7 6.8 75.7 56.5 38.9 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.8 7.9 82.0 58.4 39.5 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.2 8.1 75.5 54.9 38.2 3.1 5.4 8.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.7 9.8 74.5 54.8 40.3 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.1 8.8 74.6 54.6 38.0 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.1 8.5 67.2 50.2 38.5 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.7 7.1 59.2 48.4 35.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.2 9.5 83.7 58.0 40.1 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.7 6.2 8.5 70.5 52.0 36.3 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.5 10.4 78.9 56.2 39.6 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.4 9.2 72.4 54.3 42.2 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.8 6.6 8.4 88.9 59.5 37.4 1.8 4.5 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.2 9.7 71.6 53.2 40.0 3.6 9.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.6 6.6 72.0 55.6 38.2 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.2 10.5 75.7 54.3 40.4 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.2 9.4 78.8 56.4 37.7 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------