***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.8 5.2 57.1 49.6 36.7 3.0 8.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.6 6.8 79.1 58.7 39.1 3.3 7.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.2 6.5 68.8 54.3 38.3 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 14.1 8.3 90.2 63.7 45.0 3.2 8.0 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.1 7.0 83.8 61.2 44.4 2.9 6.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 12.5 9.5 94.0 64.0 45.2 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.8 6.7 74.4 56.4 36.8 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.1 25.1 10.9 115.2 70.0 48.2 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.2 7.2 76.4 58.2 42.5 2.6 6.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 17.0 10.5 100.7 65.5 45.7 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.3 12.2 7.3 100.5 66.0 45.8 2.9 6.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.2 16.8 8.0 108.9 68.3 46.4 3.0 7.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.9 12.0 8.7 108.1 68.4 45.3 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 18.0 10.3 88.4 61.7 43.1 4.9 11.1 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.8 10.3 7.9 96.2 65.8 41.9 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.8 8.2 108.9 68.8 44.9 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.8 17.9 7.5 81.6 59.4 40.0 6.5 12.8 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 20.8 12.5 103.0 66.3 45.5 4.3 10.5 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.1 12.8 7.1 79.6 58.8 40.0 3.8 8.9 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 18.6 15.0 119.7 70.8 50.1 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.9 6.5 71.7 56.8 40.8 3.3 7.5 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.7 17.2 8.6 86.3 60.9 40.2 6.1 11.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.6 11.9 7.2 76.7 57.3 38.9 3.8 8.8 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.0 10.2 92.7 63.1 43.1 3.4 8.6 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.5 6.7 70.1 55.9 41.3 3.8 8.2 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.1 17.7 8.3 128.8 73.4 49.5 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.7 5.8 60.8 51.3 37.9 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.6 17.5 9.1 108.4 68.9 44.4 4.0 8.6 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 27.9 13.8 110.5 68.2 48.2 7.6 15.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.1 6.1 69.0 54.5 37.5 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------