***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.2 7.4 79.9 59.9 36.6 3.5 7.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.4 6.9 73.2 56.7 35.7 3.7 8.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.7 6.8 71.7 56.6 32.8 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.4 7.3 87.4 62.4 37.5 3.0 7.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.6 8.4 6.2 73.9 57.6 34.9 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.6 13.6 9.0 104.3 67.0 41.4 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.0 8.4 6.4 70.7 55.6 35.4 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 14.5 8.0 87.2 60.7 41.3 4.4 9.5 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.9 7.2 6.0 61.3 52.1 32.2 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.0 10.5 7.4 68.9 54.2 35.8 4.1 8.9 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.6 10.0 6.3 87.2 61.5 36.0 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.4 13.4 7.6 113.8 68.7 42.0 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.6 14.1 9.7 137.6 75.1 43.0 2.8 5.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.5 9.4 74.0 57.4 37.7 3.0 7.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 8.2 5.9 87.5 62.3 35.7 2.0 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.5 14.2 8.2 122.0 71.4 39.8 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.9 12.8 8.1 84.6 61.6 37.5 4.2 8.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.7 9.2 70.9 54.7 37.8 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.8 6.8 72.1 56.5 35.0 3.6 8.3 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.5 11.3 91.7 62.1 45.9 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.9 6.6 68.2 56.1 33.1 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.0 9.1 8.5 86.3 62.1 38.3 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.5 6.7 71.6 56.9 34.4 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.7 7.9 68.2 54.5 35.4 4.6 9.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.2 7.9 82.9 61.2 37.5 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 18.9 8.7 160.8 79.4 49.6 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.3 11.3 7.7 78.0 59.2 36.1 2.9 7.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 9.2 7.1 93.9 64.2 37.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 13.2 10.3 77.5 57.1 41.0 4.9 10.3 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 8.0 6.7 72.5 56.4 35.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------