***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 50.1 42.0 38.2 81.7 49.3 45.0 27.9 42.7 60.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 49.0 45.5 40.3 90.6 54.5 47.6 29.4 42.0 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 50.6 45.7 39.4 85.1 52.1 47.0 29.9 43.8 60.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 35.2 57.9 38.2 87.6 54.2 48.1 34.8 52.4 74.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 49.1 42.6 34.3 82.1 51.1 45.7 28.5 41.5 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 57.1 54.2 43.3 93.6 56.3 49.3 32.1 47.5 66.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.8 38.3 39.0 87.2 52.1 45.6 24.6 36.8 51.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 78.2 71.0 41.5 86.1 51.7 46.0 50.9 69.1 89.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 47.7 37.7 34.2 74.6 46.8 42.1 27.2 40.1 55.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 65.9 55.2 41.8 79.8 48.1 43.5 41.3 57.3 75.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 47.2 41.2 34.7 87.5 53.3 47.2 23.5 38.1 56.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 54.9 53.0 35.5 92.5 56.4 49.1 28.5 45.1 66.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 41.3 45.2 41.2 105.4 63.3 53.6 22.7 34.2 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 69.2 65.1 52.8 90.5 54.4 47.9 40.5 59.4 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 35.7 37.9 35.7 97.4 60.1 51.9 16.7 28.7 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 39.4 42.4 38.4 101.7 61.5 52.8 21.9 33.0 46.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 30.9 46.8 39.3 86.9 51.9 45.0 32.4 45.3 60.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 64.9 55.7 49.3 83.0 49.0 44.5 41.1 56.9 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 57.4 53.8 41.2 91.7 55.3 48.6 32.5 48.2 67.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 53.9 51.7 53.6 93.8 54.9 48.3 36.5 48.2 61.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.0 37.3 35.8 77.3 48.5 43.9 26.0 38.5 53.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 36.1 52.0 41.7 90.4 53.7 46.6 37.0 49.3 63.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 50.6 49.5 42.9 93.5 56.5 50.3 32.8 44.4 57.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 59.0 52.9 45.7 85.1 51.3 45.9 36.4 51.5 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 52.7 44.3 40.6 82.7 49.9 45.0 29.6 44.3 62.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 42.1 49.4 36.0 113.1 66.4 55.4 23.7 35.2 49.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 57.1 44.0 40.3 81.0 47.8 43.7 28.6 46.8 69.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 47.3 48.6 38.0 96.1 59.2 51.4 27.0 40.1 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 81.0 75.0 53.1 87.9 51.5 46.3 58.2 73.9 90.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 47.8 44.3 40.3 90.2 54.4 48.0 26.8 40.1 56.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------