***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.2 14.3 18.0 -1.0 28.1 32.9 14.7 15.8 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.0 18.1 -0.5 39.0 42.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.3 16.8 18.5 -0.7 34.1 37.4 16.7 17.9 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.3 16.4 -0.2 45.3 45.4 12.3 13.7 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.1 16.7 -0.4 41.1 43.0 12.6 13.7 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.6 14.5 -0.1 46.9 46.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.9 18.1 -0.8 32.1 36.4 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.3 14.4 -0.2 45.6 45.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.5 16.7 -0.5 37.7 40.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.6 15.2 -0.3 42.6 43.7 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.4 16.6 -0.2 46.3 46.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.6 15.5 -0.1 47.3 46.9 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.3 15.1 -0.3 41.7 42.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.6 16.7 -0.1 46.6 46.2 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.1 18.3 -0.2 45.2 44.4 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 16.1 -0.1 47.8 47.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.6 18.3 -0.2 46.6 47.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.0 14.6 -0.2 44.9 45.0 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.4 18.4 -0.3 44.0 45.7 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.0 12.6 0.0 49.6 48.1 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 13.5 13.8 17.8 -0.8 31.3 35.5 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.4 18.5 0.1 52.0 51.7 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.2 18.7 0.1 53.2 52.1 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.3 16.7 -0.2 45.0 45.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.8 17.1 -0.8 32.2 36.2 13.8 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.4 14.4 -0.3 41.2 42.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.5 17.4 -1.0 29.0 33.6 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.7 17.1 0.0 48.8 47.7 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.7 13.9 -0.2 44.9 44.9 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.0 18.2 -0.8 33.8 37.8 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------