***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.9 19.7 0.2 54.5 53.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 19.7 0.6 62.0 59.5 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.2 20.2 0.4 59.2 57.5 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.2 18.1 0.7 66.2 61.2 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.1 14.9 17.9 0.6 63.9 60.3 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.3 16.2 0.8 68.7 64.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.3 19.7 0.3 55.4 55.0 15.3 16.1 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.8 9.7 15.8 0.8 68.9 63.8 8.3 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.0 17.8 0.5 62.5 59.6 14.9 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.0 16.5 0.6 66.0 61.8 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.0 17.6 0.8 69.1 63.9 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.3 16.8 0.8 70.2 64.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.2 15.8 0.6 64.6 60.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.8 17.9 0.7 65.2 61.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 19.5 0.7 67.3 62.1 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.6 17.0 0.8 68.9 63.6 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.1 19.7 0.8 66.0 61.8 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.6 15.7 0.5 63.7 60.7 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.4 19.9 0.8 65.5 61.8 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.9 10.7 13.3 0.5 63.2 60.7 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.7 19.2 0.4 58.3 56.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.2 19.7 0.9 68.5 63.7 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.1 20.0 1.0 69.9 64.7 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.5 17.7 0.6 63.7 60.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.7 18.4 0.3 57.9 55.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.4 15.6 0.7 67.5 62.0 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.5 18.9 0.2 55.1 54.1 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.4 18.6 0.8 68.9 63.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.6 15.0 0.5 62.4 60.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 19.8 0.4 57.5 56.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------