***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.5 20.0 0.2 53.6 52.4 15.5 16.3 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.5 19.9 0.4 57.6 55.2 15.1 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.7 18.6 20.4 0.3 55.9 54.2 17.4 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 18.1 0.7 62.9 59.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.5 18.0 0.6 61.2 58.6 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.3 16.1 0.7 64.9 61.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.5 20.0 0.2 53.0 51.9 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.4 16.2 0.9 68.6 63.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.4 17.9 0.5 60.6 58.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.7 16.7 0.7 65.3 61.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.4 17.8 0.8 67.0 62.6 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.6 17.0 0.9 68.1 63.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.4 15.6 0.5 61.5 58.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.8 17.1 18.1 0.7 63.3 59.3 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.7 19.4 0.7 64.1 60.1 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 17.0 0.7 65.3 61.5 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.2 19.9 0.5 59.8 56.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.8 15.9 0.6 63.2 59.2 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.6 20.1 0.6 60.7 57.4 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.1 13.5 0.7 66.1 61.3 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.0 19.3 0.3 54.9 53.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.3 19.9 0.7 62.1 58.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.4 20.3 0.8 65.5 60.6 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.7 17.8 0.6 61.7 58.2 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.3 18.6 0.3 56.6 54.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.6 15.6 0.7 66.6 62.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.5 19.2 0.3 55.4 53.7 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.5 18.6 0.8 64.8 60.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.0 15.2 0.5 61.8 58.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.7 20.1 0.3 55.2 53.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------