***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.9 19.3 0.1 53.1 52.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.2 19.2 0.4 62.1 60.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.0 19.6 0.2 56.6 55.5 17.3 17.8 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.8 17.3 0.4 64.6 61.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.8 17.6 0.4 64.8 62.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 13.7 13.7 15.4 0.5 69.2 65.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.1 19.2 0.1 52.4 52.5 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.4 15.4 0.7 72.4 68.5 8.4 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 0.4 64.4 61.9 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.9 16.1 0.5 68.3 65.0 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.8 17.4 0.6 70.8 67.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.9 16.4 0.7 74.0 69.9 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.8 15.6 0.4 65.0 61.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.6 16.6 17.6 0.6 69.2 65.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.3 19.0 0.5 66.3 63.0 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.4 16.7 0.6 69.8 65.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 17.1 17.1 19.2 0.6 68.9 65.8 16.0 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.3 15.4 0.5 66.8 63.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 16.3 16.3 19.4 0.6 67.4 64.5 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 13.2 0.6 71.8 67.8 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 18.8 0.1 54.0 53.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.1 19.4 0.8 72.6 68.8 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.1 19.7 0.9 76.5 71.7 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.3 17.5 0.5 66.6 63.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.7 18.2 0.2 58.0 56.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.7 15.2 0.5 66.5 63.2 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 18.6 0.1 54.6 53.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 15.0 15.0 17.9 0.5 68.4 64.5 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.4 14.7 0.5 67.0 63.8 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.3 19.3 0.2 56.0 55.3 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------