***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 28.5 28.7 29.2 0.6 57.6 57.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 29.4 29.4 30.0 1.3 66.2 64.8 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 28.5 29.0 29.7 0.9 60.7 59.8 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.9 23.2 28.1 2.0 74.9 71.6 20.0 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.1 28.9 1.7 71.0 68.7 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.4 26.9 2.3 78.5 75.3 26.2 27.4 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 28.6 28.9 29.3 0.6 58.2 57.7 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.0 26.7 1.8 72.2 69.9 15.3 16.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.6 29.5 1.5 69.5 67.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.1 27.4 1.6 69.6 67.5 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.5 29.9 29.6 2.1 75.0 72.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.3 28.4 2.3 77.5 74.6 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 30.2 30.7 29.3 2.5 80.0 76.7 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.2 29.0 1.7 71.0 69.2 26.9 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.3 31.1 2.2 77.9 74.3 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 30.9 31.3 29.3 2.3 78.2 74.9 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.5 30.1 1.8 72.3 70.0 26.8 27.9 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.2 28.3 26.5 1.7 69.8 67.8 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.1 30.3 1.7 70.5 68.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.1 24.4 1.7 70.5 68.3 21.5 22.7 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 28.5 29.1 29.9 1.0 62.3 61.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.7 30.0 30.2 2.0 75.4 72.9 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.0 30.9 2.5 79.4 76.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.0 28.9 1.7 70.7 68.7 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 28.9 29.3 28.6 0.9 62.2 60.9 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 29.7 30.1 28.1 2.4 78.5 75.7 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 28.3 28.6 28.7 0.7 59.1 58.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 31.0 31.4 29.6 2.3 78.0 74.5 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 23.4 23.4 25.4 1.4 66.8 65.2 21.0 22.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 28.4 28.8 29.6 0.8 60.0 59.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------