***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 30.0 29.2 29.7 -0.1 47.8 49.2 27.8 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.9 30.1 30.5 0.6 59.5 58.2 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.7 30.3 0.3 54.0 53.6 27.8 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.4 24.4 28.7 1.1 68.7 63.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.8 31.2 29.1 0.8 62.1 59.5 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.1 29.9 26.7 1.0 67.1 61.8 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.1 29.9 0.0 49.7 50.9 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.3 19.2 27.2 1.1 68.1 63.6 16.5 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.6 29.5 0.8 62.6 59.8 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.8 30.6 27.8 1.0 65.3 61.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.2 29.4 1.1 67.5 63.2 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.7 28.7 1.3 71.7 65.9 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.7 28.6 1.2 69.5 64.0 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 30.7 30.7 29.2 1.2 68.0 63.6 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 32.2 32.3 30.8 1.3 71.5 65.9 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 32.4 32.5 29.0 1.2 70.3 64.7 29.4 30.8 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 30.3 29.8 30.5 0.9 63.7 61.0 27.2 28.6 30.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.9 29.7 27.1 1.1 66.3 62.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.1 30.8 1.0 64.3 61.6 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 25.8 25.6 25.0 1.1 67.5 63.4 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.8 30.0 0.2 53.4 53.1 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 30.9 30.8 30.6 1.3 68.9 64.8 27.6 29.1 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.0 31.2 1.5 72.3 67.1 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.3 29.1 1.0 65.9 62.0 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.9 28.6 0.1 51.7 52.1 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 31.3 31.2 28.2 1.2 69.9 64.5 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.9 29.0 -0.1 48.3 49.6 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 32.1 32.3 29.7 1.3 72.3 66.2 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.9 26.0 0.8 63.0 59.9 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.3 30.1 0.2 52.9 53.2 27.5 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------