***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.3 30.1 31.7 0.4 54.6 54.0 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.1 32.2 0.8 60.2 57.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.2 32.4 0.8 59.8 57.9 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.1 23.9 30.9 1.4 67.2 64.0 21.5 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.5 31.2 30.9 1.3 65.5 62.7 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.3 28.4 1.7 70.7 66.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 29.8 29.6 31.7 0.4 54.8 53.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.3 19.3 29.4 1.7 70.2 66.0 17.1 18.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 31.0 30.7 31.0 1.3 65.6 62.8 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.6 29.9 1.6 68.9 65.1 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.1 30.9 1.7 70.3 66.3 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.3 30.8 1.8 71.1 66.8 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 31.2 31.4 29.8 1.7 69.9 66.2 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.4 30.6 1.4 67.9 63.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.7 31.7 31.9 1.6 69.5 65.6 29.4 30.5 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 32.0 32.2 30.6 1.8 71.0 66.9 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.7 32.0 0.9 61.7 58.1 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.5 29.5 29.2 1.5 68.1 64.2 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.9 32.5 1.1 63.3 59.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 25.6 25.6 26.8 1.5 68.5 64.5 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.3 31.6 0.8 59.3 57.9 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.3 32.0 1.1 64.1 59.6 28.0 29.2 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.4 32.6 1.5 67.8 63.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.0 30.6 1.4 67.0 63.2 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.4 30.3 0.6 58.0 56.8 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 30.9 31.2 30.5 1.9 73.0 68.3 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.8 30.8 0.4 55.6 54.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.6 31.6 31.4 1.6 69.7 66.0 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.0 24.9 28.1 1.4 66.4 62.8 22.7 23.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.8 32.0 0.6 57.4 55.6 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------