***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.3 30.4 0.4 57.3 57.0 28.4 29.0 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.7 31.1 1.0 69.3 67.1 28.3 29.0 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.6 31.0 0.8 64.6 63.1 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 23.2 23.6 29.5 1.6 78.9 75.4 21.5 22.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 30.5 30.7 29.8 1.3 74.9 72.0 28.7 29.5 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 29.2 29.7 27.5 1.6 81.2 77.1 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.2 30.5 0.5 59.1 58.7 28.2 28.8 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.4 18.8 28.0 1.7 80.7 77.1 16.8 17.5 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.2 30.1 1.3 74.8 71.9 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.8 30.1 28.6 1.5 78.3 74.9 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 30.2 30.6 30.1 1.7 80.9 77.2 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 29.4 30.0 29.5 1.9 83.3 79.3 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 30.5 31.0 29.2 1.8 82.1 78.3 28.7 29.4 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 29.6 29.9 29.7 1.6 79.4 75.0 28.0 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 31.1 31.5 31.4 1.7 81.5 77.8 29.4 30.1 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 31.3 31.8 29.8 1.8 82.8 78.7 29.3 30.1 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 29.3 29.4 31.0 1.3 74.5 70.9 27.7 28.4 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 28.7 29.0 27.8 1.6 78.8 75.1 27.2 27.8 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 29.3 29.5 31.4 1.4 74.3 71.1 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 24.6 25.1 25.6 1.5 79.9 75.9 23.0 23.7 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 29.8 29.7 30.6 0.8 64.5 63.2 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.0 31.1 1.6 78.8 74.4 28.2 28.8 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.0 31.7 1.9 82.2 77.7 28.0 28.6 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 29.3 29.6 29.7 1.5 77.9 74.1 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 30.0 29.8 29.3 0.6 62.8 61.7 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 30.1 30.6 29.2 1.9 83.4 79.3 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.1 29.6 0.4 58.8 58.2 28.1 28.7 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 31.0 31.4 30.4 1.8 82.2 78.3 29.3 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 24.1 24.3 26.7 1.3 75.8 72.4 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.3 30.8 0.7 62.3 61.4 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------