***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.2 12.8 94.3 62.0 43.3 4.8 8.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.9 13.3 108.3 67.0 47.7 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.4 11.9 100.4 64.2 41.6 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.1 9.5 8.1 63.4 46.8 31.1 5.0 10.7 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 5.1 10.7 7.8 63.4 50.1 32.9 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 2.5 5.0 5.6 42.7 37.0 24.4 4.0 9.7 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.6 16.1 131.8 73.1 50.3 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 7.4 8.6 6.1 36.9 33.2 27.1 8.6 15.8 25.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.3 8.1 8.0 60.0 48.5 33.8 4.7 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.6 8.3 7.6 48.1 39.6 29.8 6.3 11.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.3 5.3 45.5 39.2 26.6 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.1 32.2 31.2 23.3 5.7 10.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.0 4.8 4.4 41.0 36.8 22.5 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.8 13.0 10.2 66.5 52.5 37.7 5.8 11.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.0 5.4 6.7 55.6 49.1 29.0 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.9 4.5 5.0 43.9 37.5 25.0 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.8 15.4 14.8 118.5 69.6 49.3 4.8 8.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.4 8.7 9.6 57.8 43.6 34.1 5.7 10.9 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.0 15.0 12.4 99.0 64.2 45.4 6.1 10.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.7 9.6 9.4 61.5 45.1 36.4 6.8 10.9 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.5 9.3 9.2 70.6 53.6 36.5 5.1 8.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.7 17.5 14.2 106.9 66.5 47.6 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.3 11.5 11.2 85.6 59.8 42.4 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.1 9.6 9.2 63.7 48.7 34.4 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.5 12.5 11.6 80.3 57.1 38.8 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 2.4 4.8 3.7 45.1 39.9 22.4 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.8 17.0 13.0 86.8 59.2 42.3 5.7 11.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.8 6.9 55.9 44.9 28.3 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 13.0 18.1 10.1 62.4 46.3 36.3 14.1 19.3 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.6 13.5 106.7 66.4 46.6 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------