***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 2.8 7.2 5.2 53.4 47.5 30.1 3.2 8.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.1 9.5 6.2 70.6 54.8 34.8 3.2 7.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.5 6.5 5.1 51.9 47.7 31.5 2.8 7.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 7.8 4.4 48.5 47.4 29.0 3.8 8.7 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.9 5.3 3.5 38.7 42.1 27.1 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.4 3.4 36.8 39.2 28.2 3.3 7.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.1 6.3 66.5 54.9 34.5 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.1 8.7 4.0 43.7 41.8 29.5 5.7 12.3 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.6 4.0 41.3 42.7 28.9 3.3 7.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.0 6.6 4.5 42.3 41.4 28.9 4.3 9.7 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.6 4.4 3.0 37.8 40.8 26.8 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.6 4.6 3.0 39.1 40.1 27.2 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.3 3.2 2.3 27.4 33.5 22.8 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.0 9.7 6.6 53.0 47.4 31.8 4.8 10.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.3 5.6 3.5 52.2 48.8 28.3 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 2.3 4.1 2.9 36.0 39.7 25.1 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.2 16.1 6.9 86.1 60.8 40.2 4.6 10.6 19.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.5 7.8 5.5 42.9 41.7 29.6 4.9 11.7 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.2 9.6 5.8 64.2 52.0 33.0 3.6 8.7 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.9 5.6 44.4 41.8 30.3 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.2 7.9 4.8 53.0 48.0 30.3 3.8 8.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.0 14.9 7.1 86.6 61.1 36.8 4.2 9.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.2 7.5 4.9 49.1 46.3 30.5 3.7 8.8 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.7 7.4 5.5 47.3 44.8 31.0 4.1 9.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.0 7.4 5.7 54.6 48.4 30.9 3.2 8.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 2.8 3.8 1.7 28.5 33.1 23.9 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.0 7.0 5.8 52.2 47.5 30.2 3.4 7.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.9 7.3 3.8 48.6 47.7 27.8 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.2 12.2 6.2 45.4 42.1 30.2 8.3 16.4 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.3 9.0 5.9 61.8 51.3 32.3 3.7 8.5 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------