***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 2.6 16.1 4.9 127.2 72.9 35.0 3.4 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.1 14.1 4.3 110.6 67.7 35.9 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 2.7 17.2 5.3 144.7 76.4 33.3 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.0 15.2 4.3 104.1 66.7 35.9 3.7 8.1 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 2.3 12.0 4.1 112.9 68.5 32.3 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.7 12.6 5.5 92.3 64.6 33.0 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.9 11.4 3.7 93.5 62.6 35.8 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 5.2 25.7 5.6 118.2 70.4 35.5 6.4 12.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 1.9 12.5 4.3 107.9 67.7 32.3 2.9 6.4 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.7 20.3 5.8 112.4 69.3 35.7 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.3 16.8 4.4 128.4 72.6 33.2 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 3.1 16.5 4.5 123.7 71.6 31.4 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.2 13.0 5.1 118.2 70.5 29.5 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 2.9 21.4 7.1 133.1 73.8 38.7 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.8 3.0 70.9 57.3 32.4 2.3 5.8 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.6 13.9 4.7 125.2 72.0 31.4 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.6 14.6 4.3 106.5 66.7 38.1 4.0 8.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.8 17.0 6.9 120.8 71.3 38.2 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.9 18.3 4.9 121.9 70.7 35.7 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.3 16.4 7.4 118.4 70.5 41.0 4.9 8.9 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 1.7 13.8 4.4 122.6 71.3 31.9 2.5 5.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.8 11.8 4.7 115.3 69.3 39.0 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.9 16.8 5.6 133.5 74.2 35.0 3.9 7.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.5 20.8 6.0 125.6 72.4 36.3 4.6 9.5 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.5 13.9 4.3 102.6 67.0 34.8 3.2 7.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.3 15.2 3.8 116.8 69.3 31.4 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.4 16.0 4.8 114.1 69.8 35.0 2.9 6.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.1 8.4 4.1 94.5 64.2 33.0 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.9 22.5 7.5 121.5 71.7 40.9 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.3 10.9 4.7 116.7 69.5 35.3 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------