***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 26.8 42.7 27.7 75.8 48.2 41.1 29.1 44.4 63.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 26.9 43.4 29.1 85.5 52.2 43.4 28.3 41.4 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 28.3 41.2 26.5 76.1 46.6 39.7 30.3 44.1 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 30.9 37.2 21.1 58.9 35.7 30.8 34.7 52.6 74.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 23.9 29.7 19.2 56.8 34.4 29.5 28.8 41.8 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 24.4 28.2 19.4 49.4 29.0 24.7 31.6 47.0 65.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.4 42.4 31.7 92.2 56.1 45.3 24.9 37.1 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 41.8 45.5 21.0 51.6 28.7 27.1 49.8 69.0 90.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 24.9 30.0 20.2 55.8 34.2 29.8 29.2 41.9 56.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 34.4 39.1 22.9 54.1 30.9 28.5 40.9 57.4 76.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 18.4 21.3 17.2 51.7 30.2 27.2 23.5 37.8 55.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 21.4 23.7 15.8 48.2 29.0 26.1 27.5 44.2 65.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 17.0 19.8 15.2 46.6 29.1 24.3 22.4 34.0 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 34.1 44.8 29.0 64.8 38.6 34.3 39.1 58.5 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 14.7 22.5 18.4 59.0 40.9 31.7 17.0 29.5 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 16.9 20.1 16.6 51.7 31.0 26.6 21.3 32.7 46.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 29.9 50.8 31.5 92.6 56.7 46.7 32.1 44.9 60.0 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 33.7 39.2 27.7 59.6 33.1 30.5 39.2 55.6 74.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 30.1 46.9 27.8 79.3 48.9 41.4 32.1 48.0 66.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 31.3 35.5 28.7 61.9 32.3 30.2 36.1 48.2 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 25.0 32.6 22.2 64.6 39.9 34.0 27.5 40.6 56.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 32.9 49.8 31.1 85.4 52.4 43.2 35.8 47.9 61.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 30.7 40.3 26.2 70.0 44.0 38.1 32.5 44.7 58.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 32.0 40.5 25.9 63.4 37.2 33.2 37.1 52.6 70.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 29.4 41.5 27.2 69.4 42.8 36.4 33.4 47.8 65.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 19.4 22.6 12.6 48.8 31.4 25.0 23.7 35.8 50.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.5 43.5 29.2 72.3 45.4 38.6 30.9 48.6 70.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 23.3 29.9 19.0 57.7 37.0 30.5 27.0 40.1 56.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 50.4 57.4 30.3 62.1 33.7 31.3 56.7 73.5 92.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.2 41.1 28.9 82.5 50.6 42.5 27.1 40.8 56.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------