***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 16.9 17.9 20.7 2.5 88.7 86.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.3 19.9 1.8 81.1 78.5 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.8 19.4 20.4 1.9 83.0 80.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.4 15.4 17.9 2.3 88.0 85.2 11.9 12.8 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.2 18.5 2.1 85.3 83.2 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 14.2 14.7 15.3 1.8 84.0 81.8 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 17.1 17.8 20.2 2.0 84.1 81.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 9.6 10.1 15.4 1.7 82.0 79.6 7.5 8.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.2 18.8 2.0 85.0 83.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 16.4 17.0 16.5 1.8 83.0 80.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 16.2 16.5 18.0 1.7 81.2 79.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 14.1 14.5 16.7 1.8 81.6 79.4 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.5 16.6 1.4 77.1 75.3 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 17.1 17.5 18.0 1.7 81.4 79.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.9 18.7 20.5 2.4 89.6 87.5 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.0 17.3 1.5 79.0 77.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.5 18.0 19.5 1.6 79.6 76.8 15.4 16.3 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 14.8 15.3 15.6 1.7 81.6 79.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.8 17.2 19.9 1.7 80.0 77.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 10.5 11.0 13.7 1.7 82.7 80.2 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 16.6 17.4 20.0 2.2 87.2 84.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.8 19.7 1.6 79.6 77.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.5 19.8 1.6 77.7 75.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 16.9 17.3 18.0 1.6 80.9 78.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 16.8 17.7 19.8 2.6 88.9 86.3 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.2 15.5 1.5 79.0 77.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 16.8 18.0 20.2 2.6 89.5 87.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.5 18.6 2.2 87.2 84.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 13.5 14.0 14.8 1.7 82.5 80.2 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 17.2 17.8 20.3 2.0 82.9 80.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------