***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 17.0 16.8 19.8 0.7 65.4 63.4 15.0 15.9 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.7 19.6 0.7 65.1 63.0 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 18.3 18.9 19.9 0.6 63.7 62.1 16.9 18.0 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.4 17.5 0.9 70.6 67.8 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.9 17.7 0.7 64.9 62.9 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.6 15.0 0.6 65.1 63.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.5 17.2 19.8 0.8 68.0 65.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.7 15.1 0.6 64.7 62.7 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.7 16.4 17.8 0.7 66.5 64.3 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.0 16.1 0.8 68.0 65.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.5 17.4 0.6 63.6 61.7 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.5 16.1 0.5 60.5 59.1 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.7 15.9 0.6 63.5 61.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.9 17.1 17.7 0.9 70.7 68.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.5 19.5 0.9 69.5 66.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.3 16.6 0.5 62.4 60.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 17.0 17.8 19.5 0.8 68.1 65.5 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.5 15.3 0.8 69.6 67.1 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.6 19.7 0.6 63.8 62.0 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.5 10.2 13.2 0.8 68.7 65.9 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.2 19.1 0.8 67.8 65.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 16.3 16.4 19.6 0.8 68.2 65.9 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.8 19.6 0.6 62.6 60.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.8 17.6 0.8 69.5 67.2 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.3 16.2 18.6 0.8 66.1 63.9 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.6 15.1 0.4 60.6 59.1 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 16.9 16.8 19.1 0.8 66.9 64.6 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 14.9 15.1 18.0 0.8 68.6 66.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 14.2 14.5 14.7 0.9 70.9 68.0 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.5 17.1 19.8 0.7 64.1 62.2 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------