***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.3 20.1 0.8 64.0 61.2 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.3 19.9 0.8 63.6 61.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.3 20.3 0.7 62.7 60.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 14.2 17.7 0.8 66.2 63.4 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 17.4 0.5 59.5 58.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.8 15.3 0.3 57.0 56.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.7 20.1 0.8 65.2 62.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.0 15.1 0.2 55.0 54.7 8.2 8.8 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.9 17.5 0.5 61.2 59.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.8 15.9 0.4 59.7 58.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.4 16.8 0.2 53.7 53.6 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.5 15.9 0.1 52.5 52.5 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.7 15.0 0.2 54.1 53.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.8 16.7 17.6 0.8 66.1 63.3 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 17.3 17.7 19.2 0.7 63.9 61.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 16.1 0.2 55.3 54.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.7 17.2 19.8 0.9 67.0 63.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.7 15.2 0.7 65.8 63.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.2 19.9 0.7 61.7 59.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.9 10.7 12.7 0.6 63.6 61.5 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.9 19.1 0.7 64.0 61.4 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.0 19.7 0.8 65.5 62.4 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.6 19.8 0.5 59.9 58.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.6 17.4 0.7 65.2 62.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 0.9 66.0 63.1 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 14.9 0.1 52.5 52.2 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 16.2 16.1 19.3 0.9 66.1 63.0 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.2 18.0 0.7 64.1 61.6 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.7 13.6 14.6 0.6 65.0 62.9 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.5 20.1 0.7 62.6 60.3 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------