***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 17.1 16.9 20.1 0.9 65.7 61.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.9 19.9 0.8 65.5 61.7 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 19.3 19.1 20.4 0.8 65.3 61.6 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.8 17.9 1.1 70.2 66.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.9 15.7 17.6 0.8 65.6 62.5 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.2 15.6 0.7 65.4 63.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.2 20.1 0.9 67.7 63.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.2 15.5 0.7 65.3 62.1 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.7 16.6 17.6 0.8 65.7 62.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.6 16.2 0.8 66.5 63.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.1 17.2 0.6 62.1 60.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.2 16.3 0.6 62.6 60.1 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.3 15.3 0.5 61.8 60.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.3 17.7 1.0 69.6 66.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.8 17.8 19.3 0.9 67.5 64.7 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.6 17.0 16.4 0.6 62.9 61.0 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.5 19.7 1.0 68.6 63.8 15.9 16.6 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.2 15.3 1.0 71.1 67.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.9 16.7 20.0 0.8 64.5 61.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.4 13.0 1.0 72.2 67.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.5 19.2 0.9 67.0 62.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.4 19.6 0.9 67.5 63.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.2 19.9 0.8 64.4 61.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.1 17.5 0.9 69.5 65.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.9 16.9 18.7 1.0 68.2 63.7 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 15.1 0.4 59.7 58.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.2 19.3 1.0 67.6 62.9 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.6 18.2 0.9 68.3 65.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.4 14.8 1.0 71.7 67.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.1 20.2 0.8 64.7 61.1 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------