***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.1 20.2 1.2 85.0 80.1 15.3 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 1.0 81.2 76.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.6 18.9 20.3 1.0 80.2 76.0 17.3 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 14.2 14.8 17.8 1.3 88.0 83.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.5 17.8 1.0 82.1 77.9 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.1 15.3 0.8 80.6 76.6 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 16.8 17.3 20.0 1.2 84.2 78.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.5 9.6 15.3 0.8 78.2 74.6 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.3 16.7 17.9 1.0 82.6 78.8 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 16.1 16.4 16.2 1.0 82.0 78.2 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.0 17.4 0.8 76.0 72.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.0 16.3 0.7 74.9 71.7 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.2 15.7 0.7 75.2 71.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 16.9 17.2 17.8 1.1 84.9 81.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 17.6 18.1 19.6 1.2 86.1 82.0 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.6 16.6 0.7 76.0 72.3 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.2 17.7 19.6 1.1 84.1 78.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.7 15.2 15.4 1.0 85.8 81.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.5 16.7 19.9 0.9 78.7 74.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 10.5 10.9 13.2 1.0 85.7 81.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.6 19.3 1.2 84.9 80.4 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.5 19.7 1.0 82.3 77.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.1 19.8 0.9 76.0 72.6 14.7 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 16.6 17.0 17.6 1.0 84.1 80.3 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 16.3 17.0 18.9 1.3 87.6 82.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.0 15.1 0.6 73.4 70.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.5 17.3 19.5 1.3 87.6 82.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.8 18.2 1.2 85.3 81.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 13.6 14.1 14.7 1.0 86.2 82.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.8 17.2 20.1 1.0 80.6 76.1 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------