***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.2 30.3 1.8 74.7 71.3 27.2 28.4 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 28.8 29.5 30.1 1.0 64.7 62.7 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 28.8 29.6 30.1 1.2 66.4 63.9 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 23.0 23.7 27.7 2.1 78.8 75.4 20.3 21.5 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 30.1 30.2 28.3 1.3 68.2 65.5 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 27.9 28.5 25.3 1.0 63.8 62.6 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.8 29.9 30.2 1.5 71.0 68.2 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 16.9 17.4 25.7 0.9 62.0 60.5 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 28.7 29.3 28.8 1.0 63.5 61.6 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 28.3 28.9 26.5 0.9 62.6 60.9 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 28.6 29.0 28.4 0.8 60.2 58.8 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 27.9 28.3 27.1 0.8 59.6 58.5 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 29.1 28.9 27.5 0.1 51.2 51.1 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.8 28.1 0.8 61.7 59.9 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 30.7 30.9 30.7 1.6 71.3 69.0 28.4 29.5 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 29.8 30.0 27.7 0.5 57.3 56.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.4 29.2 29.7 1.1 66.8 64.5 26.9 28.0 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 27.4 28.1 25.5 1.0 63.3 61.2 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.3 28.8 29.9 0.9 62.6 60.9 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 23.2 23.9 23.7 1.1 64.8 62.7 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 29.7 29.9 30.0 1.5 70.5 67.5 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.4 29.6 1.1 66.0 63.8 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.7 29.7 0.6 58.8 57.6 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 28.1 28.7 28.1 0.9 63.0 61.0 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 29.2 1.7 74.0 70.5 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 28.8 28.7 26.3 0.2 52.6 52.4 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.1 29.8 1.8 75.9 72.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.3 28.9 1.8 73.8 71.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 22.7 23.5 24.8 1.0 63.7 61.6 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.4 30.2 1.2 66.7 64.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------