***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.5 29.9 0.0 50.4 51.3 28.0 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.0 29.9 -0.2 46.7 47.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.0 28.9 29.8 -0.4 44.1 45.6 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.2 27.4 0.1 51.6 51.7 21.7 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.6 29.6 27.8 -0.6 41.6 43.7 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.5 27.8 24.7 -1.0 35.4 37.8 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.2 29.9 0.1 51.8 52.0 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.1 25.5 -1.0 35.8 38.1 16.9 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.0 28.2 -0.6 40.9 43.0 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.2 -0.8 38.7 40.8 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.3 28.6 27.6 -1.1 34.7 37.8 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.6 26.9 -1.2 33.2 36.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.5 28.6 26.6 -1.6 28.4 32.0 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.7 27.9 -0.3 45.9 46.3 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.3 30.5 29.7 -0.3 46.1 47.4 29.5 30.8 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 29.3 29.5 27.0 -1.3 32.1 35.5 29.6 31.0 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.8 29.9 0.2 52.7 52.5 27.2 28.6 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.0 25.4 -0.6 41.2 42.7 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.3 29.8 -0.4 44.2 45.3 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.6 23.1 -0.8 39.0 40.6 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 30.3 29.5 29.4 -0.2 47.0 48.0 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.3 29.8 0.2 52.4 52.1 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.4 29.6 -0.6 41.8 43.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.3 27.7 -0.5 42.8 44.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.1 29.8 28.4 0.0 49.7 50.7 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 28.3 28.2 26.2 -1.6 27.4 30.6 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.3 29.2 0.1 51.9 52.5 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 31.2 30.5 28.2 -0.3 46.2 47.4 29.5 30.7 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.3 24.5 -0.6 41.4 42.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.7 29.8 -0.3 45.8 47.1 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------