***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.3 30.8 0.5 56.0 55.2 27.7 28.9 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.2 30.5 0.2 52.7 52.3 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.0 30.9 0.3 53.4 53.0 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.9 29.0 0.8 59.6 58.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.4 28.9 0.2 52.9 52.7 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.4 27.9 25.9 -0.1 49.3 49.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.2 30.6 0.5 56.0 55.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.3 27.0 0.0 49.8 49.9 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.8 28.9 0.2 52.3 52.2 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.6 27.6 0.2 52.0 51.7 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.5 28.4 -0.2 47.7 48.6 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.7 28.4 -0.3 46.5 47.5 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.5 27.2 -0.5 43.8 45.6 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.7 28.5 0.3 54.0 53.0 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.3 30.3 30.1 0.5 56.3 55.6 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.4 29.5 27.9 -0.3 46.5 47.8 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.9 30.5 0.5 57.1 55.3 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.9 27.0 0.4 54.9 53.9 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.5 30.6 0.1 51.1 51.1 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.7 24.5 0.3 53.9 53.0 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.2 30.1 0.5 56.2 55.3 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.2 30.4 0.4 55.2 53.8 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.4 30.5 0.0 50.2 50.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.5 28.6 0.4 54.3 53.5 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.8 29.2 0.7 59.2 57.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.0 27.9 -0.6 41.9 43.9 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 29.3 29.9 0.7 58.4 57.0 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.3 29.2 0.5 56.1 55.4 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.3 25.9 0.4 55.0 53.8 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.9 30.6 0.2 52.5 52.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------