***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.3 31.2 0.7 59.5 56.9 28.5 29.7 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.7 30.9 0.4 56.2 54.0 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.7 31.3 0.5 56.5 54.4 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.9 29.7 1.2 67.4 62.8 21.4 22.6 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.4 30.6 29.4 0.6 58.5 56.1 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.2 26.5 0.5 57.3 55.3 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.7 30.9 0.6 59.1 56.1 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 18.4 27.7 0.5 57.0 54.4 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 28.1 29.9 29.3 0.4 56.1 54.2 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.7 28.1 0.5 57.3 54.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.9 29.8 29.1 0.3 53.7 52.7 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.4 29.0 29.2 0.3 53.9 52.6 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.4 30.0 28.0 0.1 51.6 51.4 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 28.8 0.5 57.2 54.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.8 31.3 30.8 1.1 65.3 61.8 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 29.0 30.8 28.7 0.3 54.1 53.1 29.3 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.3 30.7 0.6 59.3 55.7 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.8 27.5 0.7 60.3 56.7 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.1 31.0 0.3 54.4 52.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.1 25.1 0.9 62.6 58.0 23.1 24.3 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 30.0 30.2 30.5 0.7 59.8 56.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.6 30.6 0.5 57.0 54.0 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.2 30.9 0.2 52.9 51.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.3 29.0 0.6 58.1 55.2 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.7 29.6 0.9 63.2 59.7 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.7 28.7 0.1 51.6 51.4 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.7 30.0 30.3 0.8 61.9 58.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.7 31.2 29.9 1.1 64.8 61.0 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.4 26.4 0.8 60.7 56.9 22.6 23.7 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.5 31.0 0.4 55.8 54.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------