***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.7 30.6 0.7 65.1 61.4 28.4 29.1 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.3 30.3 0.4 57.7 55.9 28.3 29.0 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.3 30.5 0.4 57.5 55.5 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.3 28.4 1.1 71.2 66.2 21.6 22.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.0 28.6 0.4 58.1 55.9 28.7 29.6 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.4 25.6 0.1 52.4 51.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.4 30.4 0.7 64.5 61.3 28.2 28.8 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.6 26.5 0.1 52.0 51.1 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.3 28.8 0.2 54.8 53.5 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 27.1 0.2 54.1 52.8 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 28.4 -0.1 48.8 48.8 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.3 27.9 -0.1 47.7 47.9 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.6 29.1 27.3 -0.5 40.6 42.3 28.7 29.5 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.9 28.3 0.4 57.1 54.7 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.7 30.4 0.7 64.2 61.4 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.3 30.0 27.8 -0.2 46.3 47.0 29.4 30.2 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.0 30.2 0.6 63.9 60.6 27.7 28.4 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.2 26.4 0.4 57.6 55.3 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.7 30.3 0.2 54.5 53.3 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.1 24.1 0.4 57.9 55.5 23.0 23.8 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.7 30.0 0.6 62.6 59.2 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.1 29.3 30.1 0.5 61.4 58.5 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.7 30.2 0.1 51.3 50.6 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.7 28.3 0.3 56.9 54.8 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.1 29.1 0.8 67.3 63.0 28.6 29.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.7 27.3 -0.5 40.1 41.7 28.4 29.2 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.5 29.8 0.9 68.1 63.8 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.7 29.0 0.8 65.1 61.7 29.4 30.1 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.6 25.4 0.4 58.2 55.8 22.5 23.3 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.1 29.1 30.4 0.4 57.8 56.1 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------