***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 19.6 29.6 22.8 182.9 83.0 63.9 5.6 10.4 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.2 24.8 20.7 194.4 84.6 63.9 4.6 8.4 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.0 28.1 23.6 203.2 85.7 62.4 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 24.0 39.0 24.8 188.5 83.5 65.6 5.5 11.6 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.5 30.6 23.9 200.0 84.9 63.9 5.2 9.8 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 22.6 35.6 24.9 185.5 83.3 67.9 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 13.3 20.8 22.0 212.4 86.6 66.7 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.0 41.2 25.3 168.2 80.9 62.3 8.2 15.4 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 20.0 22.2 169.7 80.9 60.3 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 29.6 27.2 170.5 81.2 61.0 5.0 10.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.8 27.6 22.8 202.8 85.0 62.6 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.0 31.9 19.5 173.0 81.2 61.9 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 12.2 20.8 21.9 205.9 85.5 63.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.8 32.1 25.5 160.4 79.3 59.5 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.0 22.9 23.7 224.8 87.2 64.6 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.4 22.9 22.2 201.2 85.0 64.5 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 15.7 22.7 19.2 185.9 83.4 62.9 4.7 8.3 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 20.8 27.8 28.4 158.8 79.4 61.0 6.6 11.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.8 24.2 20.8 186.8 83.6 62.2 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 25.1 29.0 164.9 80.8 61.6 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.0 18.6 21.7 172.8 81.4 61.2 4.7 8.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 18.6 23.7 17.5 160.7 79.4 58.3 5.3 9.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.1 22.5 20.9 175.2 81.7 59.9 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.1 23.6 25.7 175.0 81.6 60.6 5.6 9.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 19.3 31.7 25.2 194.1 84.5 65.7 4.7 9.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 12.3 19.8 16.9 208.9 85.9 65.6 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 25.1 44.0 25.2 194.7 84.6 65.5 5.3 11.5 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 14.1 23.2 24.6 200.4 84.8 65.0 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.8 30.3 26.9 154.8 78.6 60.2 10.1 15.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 17.2 28.4 22.8 207.2 86.1 64.8 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------