***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 16.8 25.1 19.3 173.1 81.3 61.4 2.9 6.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 9.7 13.2 16.8 158.6 79.0 61.0 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.2 20.2 20.1 169.0 80.8 60.6 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.6 21.4 17.9 161.3 79.4 64.9 4.1 8.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.5 20.9 18.2 170.8 80.9 63.1 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.0 16.0 17.0 140.1 75.4 64.9 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.8 15.9 15.6 143.0 76.0 57.9 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 17.8 26.9 19.9 189.7 83.9 68.9 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.8 19.2 21.0 180.1 82.4 66.0 2.3 5.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 19.6 29.4 21.3 183.5 82.9 66.9 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.6 16.7 15.8 158.4 78.3 60.5 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.6 18.4 15.7 176.7 81.8 64.7 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 11.9 16.1 15.6 163.3 79.9 63.7 1.8 4.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 21.9 29.6 22.8 158.7 79.0 60.3 5.3 10.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 10.5 14.1 15.1 166.5 80.2 65.2 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 10.0 13.6 16.1 165.4 80.1 63.3 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.8 18.1 15.5 137.3 75.0 56.5 3.8 7.6 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.9 20.8 24.0 176.5 82.2 66.5 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.2 20.0 18.1 168.1 80.6 61.5 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 13.3 19.3 22.9 173.1 82.1 67.7 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.6 18.9 20.5 177.5 82.0 63.7 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.7 19.8 16.7 149.4 77.4 59.3 5.0 8.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.4 16.5 20.1 174.8 81.7 61.4 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.8 27.6 23.5 176.4 82.1 63.5 3.8 8.4 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.1 21.3 19.8 151.7 77.7 60.1 3.0 6.8 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.6 16.7 14.3 160.0 79.4 63.5 2.1 5.0 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.8 18.1 19.8 158.6 78.9 60.3 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.1 19.9 17.1 170.6 81.0 65.6 2.3 5.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 19.2 26.0 24.7 167.0 80.7 67.5 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.8 18.9 17.3 162.1 79.6 60.8 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------