***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 17.7 11.5 121.7 72.2 50.9 3.2 7.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 19.0 10.4 118.1 71.2 50.6 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 20.3 11.7 128.3 73.4 51.1 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 14.5 9.0 99.0 65.8 45.3 3.3 7.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.1 8.4 90.3 63.4 43.5 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.2 12.7 106.4 67.8 45.9 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.3 14.0 10.7 121.1 71.8 49.9 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 24.7 13.4 120.1 71.2 50.9 5.6 11.6 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.1 15.5 10.9 109.2 68.9 47.4 2.9 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 18.1 13.9 120.3 71.4 49.1 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.1 11.7 8.0 96.5 65.0 42.5 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.7 18.4 9.9 115.2 70.0 47.7 3.4 8.0 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.7 9.5 105.8 68.2 45.1 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 25.1 16.7 135.9 74.9 54.1 4.2 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 10.9 7.2 100.0 66.6 45.5 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.0 10.8 8.8 101.5 66.8 43.6 3.3 6.2 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.8 19.0 10.6 118.2 71.2 51.8 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 28.8 17.6 128.5 73.2 51.8 4.4 10.8 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 20.5 10.5 120.4 71.6 50.2 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.8 17.0 16.9 117.9 70.1 52.7 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 18.8 11.0 116.4 70.9 49.1 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.4 11.4 116.2 70.5 51.8 3.5 7.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 20.8 11.2 125.9 72.8 50.2 3.4 8.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.3 20.6 15.3 133.4 74.4 52.2 4.1 8.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 14.5 11.4 112.5 70.3 50.4 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.6 14.2 8.0 113.5 70.0 46.4 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 17.9 12.0 118.8 71.6 51.2 3.3 7.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 14.6 9.0 102.7 67.0 44.5 3.3 7.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 34.2 18.5 126.8 72.6 53.6 7.6 15.4 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.0 17.4 10.8 120.4 71.7 50.6 3.1 7.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------