***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.6 16.5 9.6 142.8 76.1 51.0 3.8 7.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 20.6 10.9 154.3 78.3 52.4 3.8 7.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.7 15.8 10.5 140.1 75.6 51.6 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.8 20.1 9.2 125.8 72.7 49.3 4.7 9.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.3 13.2 8.5 128.4 73.2 48.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.3 14.3 10.6 116.9 70.4 49.4 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.7 19.0 11.1 152.3 77.9 50.7 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.9 27.5 11.7 134.2 74.3 53.7 5.3 11.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.0 13.7 9.3 124.2 72.2 49.5 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 23.9 12.3 133.6 74.2 52.8 4.8 10.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.6 18.6 7.8 128.7 73.3 48.1 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.0 16.4 8.1 125.7 72.6 50.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 11.8 8.2 116.5 70.7 48.3 2.1 5.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.6 22.2 14.9 145.9 76.7 52.2 3.1 7.3 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 13.6 6.6 114.9 70.5 47.2 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.9 13.6 8.2 125.1 72.6 47.5 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 20.7 11.2 140.8 75.8 50.2 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 17.5 15.1 130.2 73.3 52.1 5.5 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 23.4 11.3 156.4 78.6 52.4 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.1 14.6 118.9 70.2 52.3 5.0 8.9 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 15.7 9.0 130.1 73.5 50.3 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.6 16.8 12.6 146.7 76.9 49.6 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 18.1 11.6 149.2 77.4 51.3 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.3 23.2 13.9 141.1 75.7 52.2 6.0 10.8 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.1 20.9 10.4 148.7 77.3 54.7 3.5 7.7 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.6 11.6 6.1 102.3 67.0 45.0 2.4 5.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 21.6 10.4 150.0 77.5 52.9 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 12.0 8.5 125.4 72.8 48.7 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 24.4 16.2 130.9 73.4 52.9 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.7 10.9 151.6 77.8 52.2 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------