***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 72.4 89.9 63.1 158.8 81.2 66.3 31.0 46.1 63.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 65.6 79.7 58.7 158.5 81.1 65.8 27.4 40.8 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 68.5 85.1 65.9 164.3 82.6 67.0 31.3 44.7 60.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 81.4 95.9 60.9 149.8 78.4 66.0 35.6 52.5 73.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 63.9 74.8 58.9 152.9 79.1 66.2 27.7 40.6 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 70.6 79.5 65.2 140.4 76.2 65.6 30.6 45.6 63.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 58.8 71.9 59.4 158.8 81.1 66.2 24.5 36.7 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 100.9 119.3 70.3 154.9 80.6 69.4 48.8 67.8 90.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 60.9 69.9 63.4 150.4 78.5 66.1 29.1 40.9 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 83.3 100.0 74.7 154.8 80.6 68.1 39.8 56.2 75.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 65.6 77.7 54.3 151.0 78.8 66.3 26.1 40.1 57.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 76.1 89.5 53.2 150.9 78.8 67.8 27.4 44.1 64.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 53.5 63.7 55.2 152.3 78.8 66.9 21.4 33.0 47.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 96.4 110.9 79.9 151.7 79.4 66.0 38.9 58.2 81.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 52.2 67.4 52.5 161.8 80.5 67.3 17.9 29.8 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 51.7 61.8 55.3 153.4 79.3 67.0 21.0 32.1 45.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 68.0 76.5 56.5 146.7 77.9 64.0 33.0 46.2 61.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 83.7 96.9 85.1 150.0 80.0 67.1 41.1 56.8 74.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 75.6 93.2 60.6 160.5 81.6 65.9 29.5 45.0 64.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 67.4 78.3 83.4 145.1 79.6 67.4 35.0 47.3 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 64.8 75.2 62.2 153.8 79.4 66.1 28.7 41.5 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 66.9 73.1 58.3 143.8 77.2 63.9 36.3 47.9 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 66.4 77.1 63.8 159.3 81.3 65.5 33.1 45.1 58.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 77.6 94.1 78.3 159.0 81.4 67.0 36.2 51.3 69.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 73.8 85.9 66.9 154.8 80.1 67.1 33.9 48.2 64.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 57.4 67.0 45.3 150.7 78.6 67.6 22.7 34.8 49.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 81.3 101.2 67.5 158.6 81.3 67.0 32.8 50.0 70.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 59.7 72.3 59.3 156.6 79.6 67.0 25.3 37.9 53.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 101.0 114.0 86.3 145.9 79.2 67.3 55.6 73.1 92.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 64.1 80.3 61.8 163.5 82.5 66.4 26.4 39.4 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------