***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.2 19.4 0.7 62.9 61.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.1 19.3 0.7 63.0 60.7 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.8 18.2 19.4 0.6 62.8 61.0 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.3 16.7 0.3 55.9 54.8 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.6 16.9 0.3 55.8 54.8 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.4 14.5 0.3 56.3 55.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 16.7 16.9 19.9 1.0 69.6 66.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.7 9.3 15.0 0.8 67.5 64.3 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.7 16.1 17.7 0.7 64.4 62.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.9 15.7 0.5 62.5 60.4 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.1 16.1 0.0 50.1 50.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.6 15.7 0.6 63.4 61.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.2 15.1 -0.1 48.4 48.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.4 17.3 0.5 59.8 58.2 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 16.8 17.0 18.8 0.4 58.2 57.0 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 15.9 0.0 49.7 49.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.9 18.7 0.5 59.4 57.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.0 14.7 0.3 57.1 56.0 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 16.5 16.4 19.4 0.8 66.1 63.4 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.7 10.2 12.8 0.6 64.6 62.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.8 19.0 0.5 61.4 59.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.9 19.1 0.7 63.0 60.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.2 19.6 1.1 72.6 69.0 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.0 17.0 0.3 56.7 55.8 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 18.1 0.2 54.8 54.1 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.5 14.9 0.4 59.4 57.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.7 18.6 0.4 57.9 56.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.7 17.5 0.4 58.4 57.1 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.1 14.2 0.6 63.7 61.3 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.9 19.8 0.9 67.2 64.3 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------