***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.8 18.9 -0.2 46.6 45.4 15.0 16.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.5 19.0 -0.2 45.3 45.0 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 16.4 17.4 18.6 -0.4 40.9 42.2 16.9 18.0 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.6 16.3 -0.8 33.3 37.5 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.9 -0.7 35.1 38.9 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.5 14.4 -0.4 40.3 43.2 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 14.8 16.0 19.1 -0.2 46.8 45.7 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.6 8.9 14.4 -0.1 47.7 47.5 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 14.2 15.0 16.4 -0.4 41.1 42.9 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.7 14.9 -0.4 41.3 43.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 13.6 14.2 15.5 -0.5 38.3 41.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.0 13.0 15.5 0.0 49.0 48.4 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.8 14.7 -0.3 43.4 45.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 14.5 15.4 16.4 -0.5 38.8 41.8 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.1 17.6 -0.4 40.7 42.5 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.3 14.8 15.3 -0.6 36.8 40.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 15.4 16.1 18.1 -0.7 37.2 39.2 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 12.2 13.0 14.2 -0.4 40.2 43.0 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 14.6 15.6 18.8 -0.2 44.9 44.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.3 9.1 12.3 -0.4 41.5 43.9 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.8 14.7 17.8 -0.4 41.7 42.9 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.6 17.9 -0.7 35.0 38.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.0 15.0 18.4 -0.2 46.3 46.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 14.3 15.1 16.2 -0.5 39.5 42.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.8 14.8 17.2 -0.3 43.5 44.2 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.0 15.0 -0.2 46.1 47.3 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.3 18.1 -0.1 48.0 46.7 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.2 16.8 -0.7 35.1 39.0 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 11.6 12.6 13.5 -0.4 40.9 43.7 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.8 16.0 19.2 -0.2 46.6 45.8 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------