***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.7 16.9 20.6 1.2 75.3 65.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.0 20.7 1.2 75.5 65.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.8 18.8 20.3 0.9 70.0 62.2 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.1 18.0 0.4 61.2 57.8 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.0 14.8 17.6 0.5 63.6 59.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.0 15.7 0.4 61.6 57.5 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.1 17.4 20.8 1.3 77.0 66.2 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.8 10.0 16.0 1.0 75.6 66.9 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.4 18.1 0.9 71.6 63.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.3 16.5 0.8 71.5 64.0 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.0 15.8 17.1 0.6 65.4 61.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.5 17.1 0.9 73.8 66.5 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.1 16.1 0.5 63.6 59.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 17.0 16.9 18.0 0.8 68.1 61.6 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.9 17.9 19.2 0.8 70.1 63.4 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.2 16.8 0.4 59.7 57.3 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.4 19.8 0.9 69.1 61.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.8 15.8 0.8 70.6 63.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.7 16.9 20.5 1.1 74.5 64.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.8 13.8 0.7 68.1 62.2 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.3 19.5 0.9 71.3 63.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.1 19.6 0.7 65.5 59.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.4 20.1 1.1 74.8 65.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.8 17.9 0.8 69.5 62.2 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.4 18.8 0.9 71.8 63.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.3 16.4 0.7 67.9 63.0 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.0 19.7 1.2 77.1 66.6 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.1 18.4 0.5 62.7 58.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.1 15.1 0.8 70.6 63.5 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.2 20.9 1.2 75.9 65.7 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------